The Canadian government released its annual report on the country’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, called the “national inventory report,” on April 14th. This report includes encouraging news, as Canada’s GHG emissions totaled 670 megatonnes in 2021, which is the second-lowest annual total since 1996. This number represents an increase of 12 Mt over 2020, but since 2020 was such an unusual year due to pandemic restrictions, it’s not comparable. A better reference point might be 2019, where Canada’s emissions were 724 Mt, meaning that Canada’s GHG emissions have finally started to decline. According to Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, “the bottom line is that Canada is bending the emission curve downward.” While 2021 results are well below what earlier projections expected, sector-level progress isn’t symmetric, and the oil and gas sector’s emissions have increased from 168 Mt to 189 Mt and now represent 28% of Canada’s total emissions. Major oil and gas companies are now committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. However, they have a long way to go and limited time to achieve it.
Dale Beugin of the Canadian Climate Institute noted in a climate conference in Ottawa that there is evidence that recently adopted climate policies are beginning to have an impact. Beugin identified six priorities looking ahead, including creating “policy certainty,” building a bigger and cleaner electricity grid, and creating “emissions certainty” for oil and gas. The Liberal government hopes to establish “emissions certainty” in the oil and gas sector by legislating an emissions cap, but this idea has been questioned by some of Canada’s leading climate policy experts. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is committed to repealing both the federal price on carbon and the clean fuel standard, which makes achieving political consensus on this matter challenging.
The Canadian government’s goal is to cut Canada’s emissions by at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030, and net-zero by mid-century. According to analysis published by the Climate Institute last year, existing policies will reduce Canada’s emissions to 589 Mt by 2030, 149 Mt above the national target. When policies under development and promised are factored in, the gap shrinks to just 24 Mt. With quick and effective action, Canada’s goals will become increasingly plausible. Guilbeault announced that the government would update its estimate of the “social cost of carbon,” an internal calculation used for performing cost-benefit analyses of federal regulations, to $261 per tonne, based on the latest evidence and science.
The “social cost of carbon” attempts to quantify the economic damage caused by each tonne of greenhouse gas emissions. The national inventory report and the social cost of carbon lay out the inescapable math of climate change and fill in some of the facts that have been missing from the latest skirmish in the interminable fight over carbon pricing in Canada. The fight over carbon pricing is ongoing, and while it is a crucial issue, it is essential to recognize that other crucial aspects must be taken into account. The report underscores the importance of the need to eliminate GHG emissions.